Prediction record
MisstechA Tesla will be able to drive from a highway on-ramp to a highway exit with no controls touched in less than a year (by ~mid-2015).
A scored record for Elon Musk, made on .
Scored record
Misstech“I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exits without touching any controls.”
A Tesla will be able to drive from a highway on-ramp to a highway exit with no controls touched in less than a year (by ~mid-2015).
- Made on
- 2014-06-03
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2015-06-03
TRUE if by 2015-06-03 a Tesla could drive from a highway on-ramp to a highway exit without the driver touching any controls; otherwise FALSE.
Prediction made June 3, 2014 at Tesla's annual shareholder meeting; one-year window ends June 3, 2015. As of June 3, 2015, no Autopilot highway self-steering software had shipped (first release was Oct 2015), so hands-free on-ramp-to-exit driving was impossible on any production Tesla by the deadline. Even the Oct 2015 release still required hands on the wheel and did not do full on-ramp-to-off-ramp navigation (that came Oct 2018). Points to FALSE. Outcome value (o) intentionally not assigned — scoring is a later stage.
Sources
Outcome evidence
Tesla's first Autopilot software (Version 7.0), which enabled ANY hands-supervised highway lane-keeping/lane-change (Autosteer + auto lane change + traffic-aware cruise), was released October 14–15, 2015 — over four months AFTER the June 3, 2015 deadline. No Tesla could drive hands-free from a highway on-ramp to a highway exit on or before June 3, 2015. Tesla's own launch blog 'Your Autopilot has arrived' is dated October 2015.
Wikipedia (List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk) records the June 2014 prediction ('I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exits without touching any controls') and marks it unmet; Autopilot 1.0 (highway) released October 2015, and true on-ramp-to-off-ramp 'Navigate on Autopilot' only arrived October 2018. Even the Oct 2015 release required hands on the wheel and did not perform on-ramp-to-exit navigation.
Tesla Autopilot Wikipedia: the first Autopilot features were not activated until the v7.0 software update in October 2015; before that (including June 2015) only the hardware was in place, with no highway self-steering software available to owners.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.86- Confidence
- 90%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
A Tesla will be able to drive from a highway on-ramp to a h…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 7, 2026
- Made on
- 2014-06-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources