Prediction record

Misstech

Teslas will achieve complete autonomy (self-driving) less than two years from June 2016 (by ~mid-2018).

A scored record for Elon Musk, made on .

SpeechDirect quote, reputable outlettech

Scored record

Misstech

“I consider autonomous driving to be a basically solved problem. We're less than two years away from complete autonomy. Regulators however will take at least another year; they'll want to see billions of miles of data.”

Teslas will achieve complete autonomy (self-driving) less than two years from June 2016 (by ~mid-2018).

Made on
2016-06-01
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
-1.33

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2018-06-01

TRUE if by 2018-06-01 Tesla vehicles achieved complete (unsupervised) self-driving autonomy; otherwise FALSE.

Criterion asks whether by 2018-06-01 Tesla vehicles achieved complete (unsupervised) self-driving autonomy. FALSE. As of mid-2018 Tesla shipped a supervised Level 2 system (Enhanced Autopilot); complete autonomy was not achieved by the '<2 years from June 2016' deadline. Documented as unmet by Wikipedia's predictions list and Consumer Reports. No conflicting evidence found.

Sources

  • Elon Musk: We Are Less Than Two Years From Complete Car Autonomy

    Forbes ·

    Source

  • These are Elon Musk's craziest predictions from Code 2016

    The Next Web ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • Wikipedia's predictions list records Musk's June 2016 claim ('We're less than two years away from complete autonomy', deadline early 2018) as NOT MET.

    Evidence

  • By mid-2018 Tesla Autopilot/FSD remained SAE Level 2 requiring continuous driver supervision; complete/unsupervised autonomy was not achieved. Tesla has never shipped a Level 3+ system; as of July 2026 the full-autonomy goals 'are still to be met.'

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

-1.33
Confidence
85%
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
-1.33

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

Teslas will achieve complete autonomy (self-driving) less t…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 7, 2026
Made on
2016-06-01

How this profile was built

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