Prediction record
MisstechSpaceX will land humans on Mars, launching in late 2024 with arrival in early 2025.
A scored record for Elon Musk, made on .
Scored record
Misstech“We aspire to launch in late 2024 with an arrival in early 2025.”
SpaceX will land humans on Mars, launching in late 2024 with arrival in early 2025.
- Made on
- 2016-09-27
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.62
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-12-31
TRUE if SpaceX launched a crewed spacecraft toward Mars in late 2024; otherwise FALSE.
Criterion: TRUE if SpaceX launched a crewed spacecraft toward Mars in late 2024. FALSE — no such launch occurred. This is the 27 Sep 2016 IAC-derived claim; same underlying reality as the sibling 2024 crewed-launch record. No conflicting evidence. Resolved_on = deadline (2024-12-31).
Sources
Outcome evidence
No crewed SpaceX spacecraft was launched toward Mars in late 2024 (or at any time in 2024). As of Sept 2024 SpaceX's stated plan was uncrewed Starships in the 2026 window first, with crewed flights only years afterward. No human has ever been launched toward Mars.
Space.com coverage of Musk's Sept 2024 statement: first Mars Starships (2026 window) to be uncrewed; crewed missions to follow later — confirming no late-2024 crewed Mars launch.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.62- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.62
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
SpaceX will land humans on Mars, launching in late 2024 wit…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 7, 2026
- Made on
- 2016-09-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources