Prediction record
MisstechUnsupervised Full Self-Driving Teslas will be carrying paying passengers in many cities across America by the end of 2025.
A scored record for Elon Musk, made on .
Scored record
Misstech“As I've said previously, unsupervised full self-driving Teslas will be carrying passengers in Austin in June and many cities in America by end of year. This will enable passenger cars to increase in utility by roughly half an order of magnitude overnight with a software update.”
Unsupervised Full Self-Driving Teslas will be carrying paying passengers in many cities across America by the end of 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-03-31
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
TRUE if by 2025-12-31 unsupervised (driverless) FSD Teslas were carrying paying passengers in many (multiple, well beyond one or two) US cities; otherwise FALSE.
Criterion (unsupervised/driverless FSD Teslas carrying paying passengers in many US cities by 2025-12-31) not met: at most one metro (Austin) had driverless-capable operations, and even there the fully driverless (no-monitor) rides in Dec 2025 were internal testing, not paid public rides; SF had drivers in the seat. Two cities total, not 'many'. FALSE-direction resolution. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Elon Musk on X: unsupervised full self-driving Teslas will be carrying passengers in Austin in June and many cities in America by end of year
X (Twitter) ·
Outcome evidence
By end of 2025 Tesla's 'Robotaxi' operated in only two areas: Austin, TX and the San Francisco Bay Area. In the SF Bay Area every ride-hailing vehicle had a human operator in the driver's seat (not driverless). Total active robotaxi fleet was tiny (~59 vehicles). This is nowhere near 'many (multiple, well beyond one or two) US cities' of unsupervised/driverless paid service.
Electrek status check (8 months in): 'Tesla operates in two cities: Austin and San Francisco' — SF described as 'basically just Uber with FSD' (driver in seat). Musk's promise of 8-10 metro areas by year-end did not materialize; most rides still had in-car monitors.
TechCrunch (2025-12-15): Tesla only *started testing* no-safety-driver vehicles in Austin in mid-December 2025; these driverless rides were NOT open to paying customers. Paid public service still involved a safety monitor. So driverless paid service was not carrying paying passengers across many cities by year-end.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.33- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Unsupervised Full Self-Driving Teslas will be carrying payi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 7, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-03-31
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources