Prediction record
MisstechUnsupervised Tesla full self-driving will be available in many US cities so a driver can sleep in the car and wake at the destination by the end of 2025.
A scored record for Elon Musk, made on .
Scored record
Misstech“The acid test is, can you go to sleep in your car and wake up in your destination and I'm confident that will be available in many cities in the US by the end of this year.”
Unsupervised Tesla full self-driving will be available in many US cities so a driver can sleep in the car and wake at the destination by the end of 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-04-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
TRUE if by 2025-12-31 unsupervised Tesla FSD was available in many US cities to a degree that a rider could sleep and wake at their destination; otherwise FALSE.
Criterion (unsupervised Tesla FSD available in many US cities such that a rider could sleep and wake at destination by 2025-12-31) not met on every prong: personal-car FSD stayed Level 2 'Supervised' (driver must stay attentive), and the driverless Robotaxi footprint was at most one-to-two metros, not 'many.' FALSE-direction resolution. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
List of predictions and commitments by Elon Musk
Grokipedia ·
Outcome evidence
By end of 2025 unsupervised Tesla FSD was not available in 'many US cities' at all — the Robotaxi service reached only Austin and the SF Bay Area (SF with a driver in the seat), with a fleet of roughly 59 vehicles and no consumer/personal-car unsupervised FSD released. A rider could not lawfully or practically sleep and wake at their destination across many cities.
Consumer/personal-car 'unsupervised' FSD was still not released by end of 2025; Tesla's FSD for owned cars remained 'Supervised' (SAE Level 2) requiring an attentive driver who cannot sleep. Musk's unsupervised-FSD-for-consumers timeline kept slipping (repeatedly pushed to later dates).
Tesla's own consumer product remained branded and operated as 'Full Self-Driving (Supervised)' requiring the driver to remain attentive and in control at all times — incompatible with a driver sleeping.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Unsupervised Tesla full self-driving will be available in m…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 7, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-04-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources