Prediction record
HiteconomyU.S. corporate earnings-per-share growth will slow markedly in 2019 as buyback capacity falls.
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“in 2019 there will likely be much less capital for buybacks, which means slower EPS growth”
U.S. corporate earnings-per-share growth will slow markedly in 2019 as buyback capacity falls.
- Made on
- 2018-09-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2019-12-31
Resolves TRUE if S&P 500 aggregate EPS growth in calendar 2019 was markedly slower than in 2018 (year-over-year EPS growth rate materially lower, e.g. single-digit or lower vs 2018's ~20%+).
S&P 500 aggregate EPS growth slowed from ~20% in 2018 to ~5% in 2019 — a clear, marked deceleration into single digits, satisfying the written criterion. Note: the claim attributed the slowdown specifically to falling buyback capacity; the criterion only tests the EPS-growth-slowdown magnitude, not the causal buyback mechanism, and the magnitude condition is met. (Outcome value o not assigned.)
Sources
September 2018 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Outcome evidence
S&P 500 annual earnings growth rate (year-over-year EPS): 2018 = 20.49% vs 2019 = 5.35%. 2019 growth fell to single digits, materially below 2018's ~20%+, matching the criterion's 'markedly slower / single-digit vs ~20%+' operationalization.
Contemporaneous coverage: after 2018's ~22.7% earnings growth (best since 2010, driven by the 2017 tax cut), 2019 S&P 500 earnings growth was expected to be roughly flat/anemic — confirming a sharp deceleration in 2019.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
U.S. corporate earnings-per-share growth will slow markedly…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2018-09-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources