Prediction record
HitmarketsThe U.S. dollar is topping and will weaken against other currencies over roughly the next year (into ~late 2020).
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“We're likely to see the strong dollar level off and probably start to weaken over the next year.”
The U.S. dollar is topping and will weaken against other currencies over roughly the next year (into ~late 2020).
- Made on
- 2019-10-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2020-10-07
Resolves TRUE if the U.S. dollar index (DXY) was lower on or around 2020-10-07 than on 2019-10-07, i.e. the dollar weakened over the ~1-year window.
TRUE on the criterion (DXY lower ~2020-10-07 than 2019-10-07). Verified directly against primary Fed data (FRED DTWEXBGS: 117.55 -> 116.34), which confirms direction with a small magnitude; the ICE DXY specifically named in the criterion fell more (~99 -> ~93, ~-6%) because it is euro-heavy and the euro rallied in 2020. Both indices agree the dollar weakened, so no conflict on direction — only on magnitude. Exact DXY endpoint values are approximate (bot-blocked on direct exchange feeds; DTWEXBGS pulled directly from FRED). o not assigned.
Sources
October 2019 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Outcome evidence
Fed / FRED Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS), primary Federal Reserve data: 117.55 on 2019-10-07 vs 116.34 on 2020-10-07 — the dollar was lower (~-1.0%) at the ~1-year mark, confirming net weakening over the window.
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) named in the criterion fell more sharply, from roughly 99 in early October 2019 to roughly 93 by October 2020 (about -6%), driven by pandemic-era Fed easing (rates to zero + unlimited QE from March 2020) and a strong euro rally. Both the DXY and the broad index agree the dollar weakened.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Restore the pundit's exact words; the '[will]' bracket substituted her actual 'We're likely to see the' phrasing. A fetched_primary verbatim must match the source text. The corrected phrasing ('likely to see') still satisfies the committed criterion, so it remains scoreable.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The U.S. dollar is topping and will weaken against other cu…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-10-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources