Prediction record
MisseconomyThe US dollar will weaken over the next few years (from January 2020).
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“a weaker dollar over the next few years”
The US dollar will weaken over the next few years (from January 2020).
- Made on
- 2020-01-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-01-06
Resolves TRUE if the U.S. dollar index (DXY) was net lower over the ~3-year window 2020-01-06 to 2023-01-06 (per the '+36 months' inference for 'over the next few years').
Direction is unambiguous: DXY ~96-97 (Jan 2020) vs ~103-105 (Jan 2023) => net higher => prediction of a weaker dollar over the window is FALSE. Exact daily closes were not retrievable from a single primary CSV (Investing.com/Stooq were gated), but multiple credible sources agree on the ~96-97 vs ~103 levels, and the gap far exceeds any measurement noise. No conflicting evidence found. Note: an interim dip did occur (DXY fell to ~89 in Jan 2021 and low-90s at times in 2020-2021), but the criterion judges the NET change at the ~+36-month endpoint, which is higher. Outcome value (o) intentionally not assigned per stage separation.
Sources
January 2020: Expectations for the Next Decade
LynAlden.com ·
Outcome evidence
The DXY U.S. Dollar Index was in the ~96.5-97.5 range in early January 2020 (index traded around 96.6-97 on 2020-01-06). By early January 2023 the index was around 103-105 (it had ended 2022 at 103.52 after peaking near 114.78 on 2022-09-27). Net over the 2020-01-06 to 2023-01-06 window the DXY was NET HIGHER by roughly 6-8 index points (~+7%), i.e. the dollar STRENGTHENED, not weakened. Criterion resolves FALSE (dollar was net higher, not net lower).
Corroborating: DXY ended 2022 at 103.52 and stood at 103.47 as of 2023-03-17, having fallen from its 2022-09-27 peak of 114.78 — all well above the ~96-97 level of early January 2020, confirming a net-higher dollar over the ~3-year window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US dollar will weaken over the next few years (from Jan…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-01-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources