The equal-weight S&P 500 will outperform the market-cap-weight S&P 500 in the years ahead if a new business cycle begins.

Criterion

Resolution status

resolved

Resolved on

2023-06-29

Scored only on Y ('equal-weight outperforms cap-weight over ~36 months') if the condition X ('a new business cycle begins' after June 2020) objectively occurred; if X held, resolves TRUE when the equal-weight S&P 500 (e.g. RSP total return) exceeds the cap-weight S&P 500 total return from 2020-06-29 to ~2023-06-29. If a new business cycle did not begin, status void.

Condition X (a new business cycle began after June 2020) objectively held per NBER (May 2020 expansion start), so the record is SCORED on Y rather than void. Outcome Y ('equal-weight outperforms cap-weight over ~36 months, 2020-06-29 to 2023-06-29') did NOT hold: cap-weight SPY outperformed equal-weight RSP over that window, driven by megacap/AI concentration peaking in 2023 H1. Note: I could not pin the exact-date cumulative RSP-vs-SPY total-return figures for the precise 2020-06-29 to 2023-06-29 endpoints from a single primary source; every credible source agrees on direction (SPY ahead), and the compounded annual returns confirm it, but the exact spread is approximate. Directionally unambiguous; a quantify-stage exact endpoint pull (RSP vs SPY total-return, 2020-06-29 to 2023-06-29) would firm up the margin.

Sources

• June 2020 Newsletter

  lynalden.com · 2020-06-29

  Source