Prediction record

Hitcrypto

Bitcoin will outperform precious metals (gold and silver) from mid-August 2020 through the end of 2021.

A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .

BlogPrimary sourcecryptomarkets

Scored record

Hitcrypto

I think it has a fairly high likelihood of outperforming precious metals from now through the end of 2021

Bitcoin will outperform precious metals (gold and silver) from mid-August 2020 through the end of 2021.

Made on
2020-08-16
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
+2.76

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2021-12-31

Resolves TRUE if Bitcoin's price return from 2020-08-16 to 2021-12-31 exceeds the return of gold and silver (spot) over the same window. Bitcoin must beat both metals to fully resolve TRUE (primary weight given the 'precious metals' plural framing).

Bitcoin (~+289%) dramatically outperformed BOTH gold (~-6%) and silver (~-12%) over 2020-08-16 to 2021-12-31; the metals both had NEGATIVE returns while BTC nearly quadrupled. The 'beat both metals' plural-framing condition is unambiguously satisfied. Prices are spot/close approximations from secondary aggregators (StatMuse, CoinMarketCap historical snapshot, CoinNews, CNBC); exact figures vary by source/venue but the direction and magnitude are not in dispute. No outcome value assigned here.

Sources

  • August 2020 Newsletter

    lynalden.com ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • Bitcoin closed ~$11,893 on 2020-08-16 and ~$46,329 on 2021-12-31, a return of roughly +289% over the window.

    Evidence

  • Bitcoin close on 2020-08-16 was approximately $11,892.80 (window start reference).

    Evidence

  • Gold spot was ~$1,940-1,945/oz around 2020-08-16 and closed 2021 near $1,829.66/oz — gold returned roughly -6% over the window (gold FELL). Silver spot was ~$26/oz in mid-Aug 2020 and closed 2021 at ~$23.27/oz, a loss of roughly -12%. Both metals had negative returns for 2021.

    Evidence

  • Gold price on 2021-12-31 confirmed at ~$1,829.66/oz; gold marked a yearly dip for 2021.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

+2.76
Confidence
80%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
+2.76

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

Bitcoin will outperform precious metals (gold and silver) f…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 6, 2026
Made on
2020-08-16

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