Prediction record
MisspoliticsA second COVID fiscal stimulus package will be passed before the November 2020 US election.
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Misspolitics“I suspect that another fiscal round will be passed before then”
A second COVID fiscal stimulus package will be passed before the November 2020 US election.
- Made on
- 2020-08-16
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2020-11-03
Resolves TRUE if a further federal COVID fiscal-relief package was enacted into law before the 2020 US general election (2020-11-03). Resolves FALSE if no additional stimulus package passed before that date.
Resolves FALSE: no further federal COVID fiscal-relief package was enacted into law before the 2020-11-03 election. The next package (the $900B December relief bill, after the March CARES Act) passed 2020-12-21 and was signed 2020-12-27, roughly seven weeks after the election. Resolved_on set to the deadline (2020-11-03), the date by which the predicted event failed to occur. (Status 'resolved' denotes the outcome is settled; the FALSE/outcome-value assignment is left to the scoring stage.)
Sources
August 2020 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Outcome evidence
Pre-election stimulus negotiations (Pelosi/Mnuchin) stalled; no additional COVID relief package was enacted before the 2020-11-03 election. Trump stated a deal would come after the election.
The next COVID relief package ($900B) was not passed until Congress voted 2020-12-21 and Trump signed it 2020-12-27 — after, not before, the November 2020 election.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
A second COVID fiscal stimulus package will be passed befor…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-08-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources