Prediction record
25% outcomeeconomyThe broad money supply per capita will grow at roughly 8-12% or more per year on average over the next 3-5 years (through ~2023-2025).
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomeeconomy“My base case is for continued fast growth of the broad money supply per capita over the next 3-5 years, perhaps at 8-12% or more per year on average.”
The broad money supply per capita will grow at roughly 8-12% or more per year on average over the next 3-5 years (through ~2023-2025).
- Made on
- 2020-11-15
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.18
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-11-15
US broad money supply (M2 or broad money) per capita grows at roughly 8-12% or more per year on average over 2020-11-15 through 2025-11-15.
Criterion asks whether US broad money (M2) per capita grew ~8-12%+ per year on average over 2020-11-15 to 2025-11-15. TOTAL M2 rose from ~$19,050B (Nov 2020) to ~$22,020B (June 2025) — about +15.6% total over ~4.6 years, i.e. a ~3.2%/yr CAGR for total M2. Per-capita growth would be LOWER still (US population grew ~2-3% over the period). This is far below the 8-12%/yr threshold. Note the trajectory was front-loaded (rapid 2020-2021 COVID expansion peaking early 2022, then a 2022-2023 contraction, then renewed growth to a new record in 2025), so the AVERAGE annual rate is well under 8%. Deadline 2025-11-15 has passed; data through June 2025 (plus continued modest ~4-5%/yr growth) makes the average unambiguous. No outcome value assigned. Exact monthly M2SL endpoints (Nov 2020, and an Oct/Nov 2025 print) should be pulled from FRED M2SL at score time for the precise CAGR; the FRED CSV/data endpoints returned 403 to the automated fetch here, so the Nov-2020 ~$19,050B figure is the widely-cited FRED value from memory/secondary reporting rather than a direct fetch.
Sources
November 2020 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Outcome evidence
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.18- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.18
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The broad money supply per capita will grow at roughly 8-12…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-11-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources