Prediction record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve will stop tightening monetary policy (once something in financial markets breaks) before short-term interest rates reach 3%.
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“I think the Fed will probably get some signals to stop tightening monetary policy prior to hitting very high levels, once something in financial markets breaks. And I think that will happen before they reach 3% short-term interest rates, and/or before $1 trillion is off the balance sheet.”
The Federal Reserve will stop tightening monetary policy (once something in financial markets breaks) before short-term interest rates reach 3%.
- Made on
- 2022-05-08
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-09-22
The upper bound of the fed funds target rate stops rising (Fed pauses hikes) at a level strictly below 3% (i.e. the final hike of the cycle leaves the rate under 3%). Resolves FALSE if the Fed continued raising to 3% or above before pausing.
Criterion: resolves FALSE if the Fed continued raising to 3% or above before pausing. The Fed reached 3.00-3.25% on 2022-09-22 and kept hiking to a 5.25-5.50% peak (July 2023) before pausing — far above the 3% threshold. Evidence therefore supports a FALSE outcome (the prediction that tightening would stop before 3% did not hold). resolved_on set to the date the rate first crossed 3% (2022-09-22), within the record's 2023-05-01 deadline. No conflicting credible evidence; official Fed source.
Sources
May 2022 Newsletter: Inflation or Recession
lynalden.com ·
Outcome evidence
Federal Reserve official open-market-operations record: the FOMC raised the fed funds target range to 3.00-3.25% on 2022-09-22, and continued hiking beyond that to 3.75-4.00% (Nov 2022), 4.25-4.50% (Dec 2022), and ultimately 5.25-5.50% (Jul 2023). The Fed did NOT pause below 3% — it raised through and well past 3% before pausing.
Corrections
- Date: Actual publication date (already in sources[].date) is 2022-05-08.
Score contribution
-1.12- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Federal Reserve will stop tightening monetary policy (o…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources