Prediction record
HiteconomyIf there is another round of economic growth in 2024 or 2025, inflation pressures will return.
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“if we have another round of growth, maybe, you know, 2024, it's 2025, I think some of those inflation pressures would be ready to return.”
If there is another round of economic growth in 2024 or 2025, inflation pressures will return.
- Made on
- 2023-01-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
Conditional. Condition X = another round of US economic growth materializes in 2024 or 2025 (e.g. accelerating real GDP growth). Only if X occurred, resolves TRUE if inflation pressures returned (a renewed uptick in US CPI inflation) by end of 2025; FALSE if inflation kept falling despite the growth. If X did not occur -> void.
Condition X met (growth materialized in both 2024 and 2025), so record does not void. Consequent also observed: CPI stopped falling and ticked back up (bottomed ~2.4% Sep 2024, rose to ~2.9-3.0% by end-2024/2025) rather than continuing to fall. Criterion points to TRUE. Note: the renewed uptick is modest and partly tied to tariffs/other factors; magnitude is debatable but direction (inflation returned amid growth) is supported. Not scoring here.
Sources
Bitcoin Is Banking & Electrifying the Developing World w/ Lyn Alden
The Investor's Podcast (Bitcoin Fundamentals) ·
Outcome evidence
Condition X (another round of US economic growth in 2024 or 2025) occurred: BEA reports real GDP grew 2.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 — sustained, solid expansion in both years.
Inflation pressures returned: after easing to 2.4% in September 2024, headline CPI re-accelerated, closing 2024 at 2.9% with a strong Sep-2024-to-Jan-2025 run (~4.1% annualized), and CPI was ~3.0% YoY as of September 2025 — a renewed uptick over the 2024-2025 window rather than continued disinflation.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Condition X (another round of US growth in 2024 or 2025) objectively occurred — real GDP grew 2.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 per BEA — so the record scores on Y rather than voids; condition_met must be true.
Score contribution
+3.02- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If there is another round of economic growth in 2024 or 202…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources