Prediction record
HitpoliticsThe US debt-ceiling X-date will hit in late spring or early summer 2023.
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Hitpolitics“It's now likely to strike in late spring or early summer.”
The US debt-ceiling X-date will hit in late spring or early summer 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-04-26
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-06-05
Resolves TRUE if the US Treasury debt-ceiling X-date (the point Treasury would exhaust borrowing headroom absent a raise) fell in late spring or early summer 2023 (roughly late May through July 2023); FALSE if it was materially earlier or later. Committed ('likely'), falsifiable against the Treasury/CBO X-date, time-bound.
Criterion resolves TRUE: Treasury's official X-date was June 5, 2023 (earlier estimates had been ~June 1), i.e. early summer 2023 — not materially earlier or later. Primary source is the Treasury Secretary's own letter. Prediction was made 2023-04-26; deadline 2023-07-31. Not scoring here.
Sources
Outcome evidence
Treasury Secretary Yellen's official letter to Congress (May 26, 2023) set the debt-limit X-date at June 5, 2023 — the point Treasury projected it would be unable to satisfy all obligations. This falls squarely in late spring / early summer 2023, matching the criterion's 'roughly late May through July 2023' window.
CNBC/NPR corroborate: Treasury's June 5, 2023 X-date, extended from an earlier ~June 1 estimate; the Fiscal Responsibility Act suspended the debt limit just before that date.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US debt-ceiling X-date will hit in late spring or early…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources