Prediction record
MisseconomyWhen the debt ceiling is raised and the Treasury refills its General Account via bond issuance later in 2023, it will be very negative for financial-system liquidity.
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“When the debt ceiling is raised and the Treasury Department begins refilling its Treasury General Account with more bond issuance later this year, then that would likely be very negative for liquidity, assuming the Fed is still reducing their balance sheet at that point.”
When the debt ceiling is raised and the Treasury refills its General Account via bond issuance later in 2023, it will be very negative for financial-system liquidity.
- Made on
- 2023-01-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
Conditional. Condition X = the debt ceiling was raised and Treasury began refilling the TGA via bond issuance later in 2023. Only if X occurred, resolves TRUE if financial-system liquidity (e.g. bank reserves + reverse-repo balances, or broad liquidity proxies) fell materially over the refill period in 2023; FALSE if liquidity held up or rose. If X did not occur -> void.
Condition X met (debt ceiling raised, TGA refilled via issuance later in 2023), so the record does not void. But the consequent FAILED: liquidity was 'not very negative' — the RRP facility (~$2T) absorbed the T-bill issuance, bank reserves held roughly stable, and broad net liquidity even rose over 2023. Multiple analyses explicitly contrast 2023 (RRP-cushioned, benign) with later refills. Criterion points to FALSE (liquidity held up / rose rather than falling materially). Sources here are analyst/market commentary rather than a single official statistic; underlying series (H.4.1 reserves, RRPONTSYD) are on FRED and corroborate stable reserves. Not scoring here.
Sources
Outcome evidence
Condition X occurred: the debt ceiling was suspended in early June 2023 (Fiscal Responsibility Act) and Treasury refilled the TGA via heavy bill issuance over the following months (TGA rose by roughly $600B+ over ~3-4 months).
However, financial-system liquidity did NOT fall materially: the ON RRP facility (over $2T at the time) absorbed nearly all the TGA refill as money-market funds rotated out of RRP into new T-bills, so bank reserves stayed roughly stable. Analyses of 2023 find net liquidity actually rose ~$340B on the year; the feared drain on reserves did not materialize because RRP cushioned it.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: resolution establishes the debt ceiling was raised (June 2023 FRA) and Treasury refilled the TGA via issuance — condition objectively occurred, so the record does not void and scores on the consequent.
- Date: the verbatim is a blockquote attributed to her Jan 22, 2023 Premium Report; original utterance date is Jan 22. Deadline ('later this year' = 2023-12-31) is unaffected.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
When the debt ceiling is raised and the Treasury refills it…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources