Prediction record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will return to balance-sheet expansion (to keep US Treasury markets liquid) around 2025.
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“Eventually, perhaps around 2025 or so, the large fiscal deficits and a weaker consumption economy will likely lead the Fed to go back to balance sheet expansion to keep U.S. Treasury markets liquid and stable, and to keep the banking system smooth and well-functioning with ample reserves.”
The Federal Reserve will return to balance-sheet expansion (to keep US Treasury markets liquid) around 2025.
- Made on
- 2024-07-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
SCOREABLE. YES if the Fed's total balance sheet stops shrinking and resumes sustained net expansion (month-over-month growth in total assets, ending quantitative tightening) at some point by end of 2025-12-31, NO otherwise.
Scoreable, resolved YES. By the 2025-12-31 deadline the Fed had (a) ended QT (announced end effective Dec 1, 2025) and (b) resumed sustained net expansion of total assets — WALCL rose for four consecutive weeks into year-end (~$6,536B -> ~$6,641B). This satisfies 'stops shrinking and resumes sustained net expansion ... by end of 2025-12-31.' Timing ('around 2025') was accurate. Note: WALCL dipped to ~$6,574B the first week of January 2026, but the criterion is satisfied by the sustained turn observed within 2025. No outcome value (o) assigned; scoring is downstream.
Sources
Outcome evidence
FRED series WALCL (Fed total assets, Wednesday level): assets shrank through nearly all of 2025 — from ~$6,852B (Jan 1, 2025) to a cycle low of ~$6,535.8B on Dec 3, 2025 — then turned up and net-expanded through year-end: $6,535.8B (Dec 3) -> $6,539.3B (Dec 10) -> $6,556.9B (Dec 17) -> $6,581.2B (Dec 24) -> $6,640.6B (Dec 31). That is sustained, multi-week net growth in total assets beginning early December 2025, before the 2025-12-31 deadline.
The Fed announced it would end balance-sheet runoff (quantitative tightening) effective December 1, 2025, with QT concluding in December 2025 and the balance sheet beginning a new phase of expansion in December — corroborating the WALCL turn from contraction to expansion.
Corrections
- statement context: Verbatim confirmed exactly against the live newsletter; the 'not confirmed' caveat is stale and understates provenance.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Federal Reserve will return to balance-sheet expansion…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-07-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources