Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin will trade up to the $30,000–$40,000 range
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“Bitcoin could easily trade to $30,000 to $40,000 during this stage, as the price is currently massively depressed by bearish post-FTX sentiment. The next stage would take us to $69,000 and beyond but could only commence once a significant amount of USD has been injected into the crypto capital markets”
Bitcoin will trade up to the $30,000–$40,000 range
- Made on
- 2023-01-19
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-04-11
Bitcoin reaches the $30,000–$40,000 range at any point within the horizon window.
Criterion SATISFIED early and comfortably: BTC reached the $30,000–$40,000 range in April 2023 (first touch ~$30k) and traded through it to ~$44k by Dec 2023 — well within the horizon (deadline 2026-01-19). resolved_on set to the first entry into the range.
Sources
Bouncy Castle
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin touched $30,000 in mid-April 2023 for the first time since June 10, 2022, surging ~50% from ~$20k amid the banking turmoil.
Bitcoin traded up through and within the $30k–$40k band across 2023, reaching a 2023 high of ~$44,129 on Dec 5, 2023 (passing through the entire target range).
Corrections
- tags: A BTC price target is a cryptocurrency price call: per the tag dictionary's crypto-vs-markets rule, crypto is primary and markets is carried secondary.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will trade up to the $30,000–$40,000 range- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources