Arthur Hayes

Where the scored claims come from

Sources searched

• Crypto Hayes essay archive (Medium, 'Crypto Trader Digest')

  Arthur Hayes's own long-form essay archive, published roughly every two weeks on Medium as 'Crypto Hayes' since February 2021 and cross-posted to his Substack from December 2022 onward. This is the single richest, primary, dated record of his Bitcoin and Ether price targets and his monetary-policy timing calls. The complete list of 111 essays was recovered from a public web archive of the Medium site, running from 'Walkaway' (Feb 18 2021) to 'Reality Test' (Jun 8 2026); the Substack side independently lists 76 of these (the December 2022 onward span). The 46 earliest essays (February 2021 through November 2022) exist only on Medium and must be pulled from there directly, because the deterministic newsletter collector only sees the Substack era.

  Total known

  111

  We examined

  8

  Time span

  2021-02-18..2026-06-08

  How we sampled

  The full list of 111 essays was enumerated from a public web archive of the Medium site and cross-checked against the Substack publication's own archive (76 posts). Because Hayes titles his essays with jokes and puns rather than descriptive headlines, matching titles against a broad forecast-word lexicon (will, won't, going to, expect, predict, forecast, bet, soon, imminent, coming, collapse, crash, boom, recession, surge, plunge, peak, top, bottom, cycle, target, price levels and dollar figures, and timing words like by-a-year / this-year / next / decade) flagged only 21 of the 111 essays. A random audit of the un-flagged remainder — five essays read in full — found that three of the five nonetheless contained at least one specific dated prediction the title had hidden, a miss rate around 60 percent. The clear implication, and the rule going forward, is that essentially every essay must be read rather than filtered by title; a title filter alone would recover only about a quarter of his forecasting record. Eight essays have been read in depth so far and confirm the archive is dense with datable, falsifiable calls (for example an explicit 'ETH north of $10,000 by year-end' target for 2022).

• Crypto Trader Digest (Substack cross-post)

  The same essays, cross-posted to Hayes's Substack newsletter (about 67,000 subscribers) from December 2022 onward. Its archive was listed exhaustively through the publication's own machine-readable index: 76 posts from 'PEMDAS' (Dec 9 2022) to 'Reality Test' (Jun 8 2026). This is the channel that can be collected in full automatically, and it covers everything from late 2022 on; it does not contain the 2021-through-late-2022 essays, which is why the Medium archive above is treated as the fuller universe.

  Total known

  76

  We examined

  4

  Time span

  2022-12-09..2026-06-08

  How we sampled

  Every post in the Substack archive was enumerated (76 in total) via the publication's own paged archive index. The same forecast-word lexicon and the same read-everything conclusion from the Medium archive apply here, since these are the identical essays. A handful were read in depth to confirm the cross-post matches the Medium originals and that the whole publication is automatically collectible.

• Podcast and video interview appearances (guest)

  Hayes does not host his own channel or show; he appears as a frequent guest on crypto podcasts and YouTube interview programs (Bankless, Empire, CoinDesk, Unchained, Coin Bureau, Real Vision and others), where he repeats and updates dated price calls — for instance a '$250,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2025' target and a 'Bitcoin to $1 million by 2028' thesis tied to an expected AI-driven credit bust. Because there is no single channel to list, appearances were found by open search rather than enumerated; the count here is a floor, not a complete inventory.

  Total known

  unknown (a floor; appearances found by open search, not a complete inventory)

  We examined

  4

  Time span

  2021-01-01..2026-06-30

  How we sampled

  Appearances were located by open search for Hayes interviews carrying explicit predictions across the major crypto shows. Where a published transcript or show notes quote him directly, his own words are used; where only a host or news recap paraphrases him, the statement is stored with its context and marked as relayed secondhand, to be traced to the original audio before it can count. No systematic show-by-show enumeration was performed because he guests across many programs rather than publishing on one.

• X / @CryptoHayes trading bets

  Hayes's X account carries crisp, unusually datable trading bets and short-horizon price calls in his own words — for example 'I bet BTC hits $110,000 before it retests $76,500' (March 2025) and 'gunning for sub $50k this weekend' (September 2024). These are among his most cleanly falsifiable statements. The account has not been enumerated exhaustively; individual high-signal posts were located via search and third-party retrospectives.

  Total known

  unknown (not exhaustively enumerated; high-signal posts located via search)

  We examined

  3

  Time span

  2021-01-01..2026-06-30

  How we sampled

  High-signal dated bets were located through open search and a third-party accuracy retrospective, then pointed back at the original posts so his exact wording can be captured. The account's full timeline was not swept post by post; automated access to the platform's archive is limited, so this channel is sampled rather than exhaustive.

Open web search

Known gaps

The largest remaining gap is depth, not breadth of the essay archive: all 111 essays are listed, but only a small share have been read closely so far, and because Hayes's joke titles hide his predictions a title filter recovers only about a quarter of them — so the archive must be read essay by essay, and until it is, many specific price and timing calls (especially in the 2021-2022 essays that live only on Medium) are not yet captured. His interview and podcast predictions are currently held mostly as reputable recaps rather than the original audio, so their exact wording still needs to be traced to the source before they can count. His X trading bets are among his cleanest falsifiable calls but the account has not been swept post by post, so that channel is sampled rather than complete. A handful of his most famous targets ($1M Bitcoin by 2028, ETH out of the top three by 2030) have horizons that have not yet arrived and cannot contribute to a resolved score. Finally, his oldest writing under the BitMEX byline (pre-2021) was not systematically pulled and is a minor early gap.

What we didn’t score & why

Conditional whose trigger never occurred

22

Implied call — no explicit horizon stated

235

Out of scope for scoring

40

Outcome not yet known

64

Set aside for human review

29