Prediction record
75% outcomecryptoThe real Bitcoin bull market will begin in late Q3 or early Q4 2023
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
75% outcomecrypto“the fireworks and the real Bitcoin bull market will begin in the late third and early fourth quarter of this year.”
The real Bitcoin bull market will begin in late Q3 or early Q4 2023
- Made on
- 2023-06-01
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.94
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-10-31
Bitcoin enters a sustained bull-market uptrend beginning approximately July–October 2023.
A sustained bull-market uptrend did begin within the stated window, starting in the second half of October 2023 (early Q4). Nuance: the uptrend began near the very end of the criterion window (late October, right at the Oct 31 deadline) rather than in Q3 — July–September 2023 was flat-to-down (~$30k falling to ~$26k). The prediction's timing was directionally correct, catching the true kickoff of the 2023–2024 bull run only in the final ~two weeks. Outcome value (o) and scoring deferred to a later stage.
Sources
Patience Is Beautiful
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin was rangebound near $30k in July 2023 and drifted down to ~$26k in Aug–Sep 2023, then surged in the second half of October 2023: it broke above $30k mid-month and rallied to a 17-month high of ~$35k on Oct 23–24 on spot-ETF approval expectations (BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust listed on DTCC). This late-Q3/early-Q4 move became the start of the sustained bull run that carried into the Jan 2024 ETF approval and new all-time highs in 2024 — matching the 'late Q3 or early Q4 2023' / 'approximately July–October 2023' window.
Bitcoin posted a ~27–28% gain in October 2023 (its strongest month since January), closing the month around $34,668, after hovering near $27k in the first half of October — the largest short-liquidation event of 2023 and the launch of the sustained uptrend.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.94- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.94
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The real Bitcoin bull market will begin in late Q3 or early…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-06-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources