Prediction record
50% outcomeeconomyUS inflation will reach a local trough in summer 2023 and then re-accelerate through year-end 2023
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
50% outcomeeconomy“Inflation will reach a local low this summer and re-accelerate into the end of the year.”
US inflation will reach a local trough in summer 2023 and then re-accelerate through year-end 2023
- Made on
- 2023-06-01
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
US CPI/inflation prints a local low in summer 2023 and then rises through December 2023.
Split outcome relative to the written criterion ('prints a local low in summer 2023 and then rises through December 2023'). PART 1 (local trough in summer 2023) is clearly TRUE: June 2023's 3.0% was the local low, and inflation re-accelerated to 3.7% by September. PART 2 ('rises through December') is only partially true: CPI did NOT rise monotonically through December — it peaked at 3.7% in Sept, then fell to 3.1% by Nov before rebounding to 3.4% in Dec. Year-end December (3.4%) was higher than the June trough (3.0%), so on a trough-vs-year-end basis it ended higher, but the clean 'reaccelerate through year-end' path did not hold. Both sides noted; outcome value (o) and scoring deferred to a later stage.
Sources
Patience Is Beautiful
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
US headline CPI year-over-year prints (BLS, via US Inflation Calculator compilation): June 2023 3.0% (the summer local low/trough), July 3.2%, Aug 3.7%, Sep 3.7% (local peak), Oct 3.2%, Nov 3.1%, Dec 3.4%. Inflation did trough at 3.0% in June 2023 and re-accelerated through the summer to 3.7% by September, then eased in Oct–Nov before ticking back up to 3.4% in December.
Primary source for the underlying monthly CPI 12-month change series (BLS Consumer Price Index program).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
US inflation will reach a local trough in summer 2023 and t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-06-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources