Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin experiences a 20% to 30% (up to 40%) correction from whatever level it reaches by early March 2024.
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“I am preparing for a vicious washout of all the crypto tourists in March of this year. ... a healthy 20% to 30% correction from whatever level it has attained by early March.”
Bitcoin experiences a 20% to 30% (up to 40%) correction from whatever level it reaches by early March 2024.
- Made on
- 2024-01-04
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-31
Bitcoin undergoes a peak-to-trough decline of at least 20% from its early-March 2024 level during March 2024.
Criterion (peak-to-trough decline of at least 20% from BTC's EARLY-MARCH 2024 level during March 2024) is NOT met on the evidence. From the early-March level (~$62,462 on Mar 1, ~$67,758 by Mar 4) to the March intraday low (~$60,808 on Mar 20), the change was roughly flat to slightly negative (about -2.6% vs the Mar 1 close; positive vs the Mar 4 level). Even measured from the mid-March all-time high (~$73,750) to the March low (~$60,808), the peak-to-trough decline was only ~17.5% — still short of the 20-30% (up to 40%) predicted. BTC ended March UP ~16.6%. No interpretation of the criterion yields a >=20% decline within March 2024. Resolved false on the evidence. Minor interpretive note (does not change outcome): the claim's reference point ('from whatever level it reaches by early March') is ambiguous, but both the early-March-level reading and the peak reading fall short of 20%. resolved_on set to window end (2024-03-31).
Sources
Outcome evidence
StatMuse/CoinMarketCap daily data: BTC opened early March 2024 around $62,462 (Mar 1 close), rose ~8% to ~$67,758 by Mar 4, reached its March all-time high of ~$73,750 on Mar 14, printed a March intraday low of ~$60,808 on Mar 20 (lowest close ~$64,062 on Mar 23), and closed the month at ~$71,334 (up ~16.6% for the month).
Forbes (Mar 15, 2024): after the mid-March all-time high (~$73,634 on Mar 13 per CoinMarketCap), BTC fell roughly 10% to ~$66,077; peak-to-trough over the rest of March reached only ~17.5% (ATH ~$73,750 to March low ~$60,808).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin experiences a 20% to 30% (up to 40%) correction fro…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources