Prediction record
MisseconomyThe BTFP's expiration triggers a mini financial crisis that forces the Fed to cut rates and/or taper QT and/or restart QE.
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“the cessation of the BTFP will cause a mini-financial crisis and force the Fed to stop Talkin' and start Yellen with a rate cut, tapering of QT, and/or a resumption of money printing via quantitative easing (QE).”
The BTFP's expiration triggers a mini financial crisis that forces the Fed to cut rates and/or taper QT and/or restart QE.
- Made on
- 2024-01-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-06-30
Within roughly three months of the BTFP's March 2024 expiration, a notable banking/funding-stress episode occurs AND the Fed responds by cutting rates, tapering QT, or restarting QE.
Conjunctive criterion (banking/funding-stress episode AND Fed easing response). First conjunct FAILED: no notable banking/funding-stress episode followed the March 2024 BTFP expiration. The Fed did taper QT (May/June 2024), which superficially matches the 'taper QT' branch, but the required triggering crisis did not occur and the QT slowdown was independently planned — so the causal claim does not hold. No rate cut and no QE restart in the window. Both sides logged.
Sources
Yellen or Talkin'?
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
The BTFP expired March 11, 2024 with NO banking/funding-stress episode — no bank of meaningful size failed around the expiration; reporting noted the program wound down calmly and reserves stayed ample.
Fed did NOT cut rates in the ~3-month window (first cut was Sept 2024). It DID slow QT (Treasury runoff cap $60B→$25B/month, announced May 1, 2024, effective June), but as a pre-planned liquidity-management step, not a response to any BTFP-triggered crisis.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Condition (Fed lets BTFP expire on schedule without renewal) objectively occurred 2024-03-11; the conditional is live and Y must be scored, not void. Null blocked resolution.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The BTFP's expiration triggers a mini financial crisis that…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources