Prediction record
HitmarketsStocks with crypto-adjacent business lines will rise during the 2024 crypto bull market
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“As the crypto bull market advances, stocks with any tangential crypto business lines will pump.”
Stocks with crypto-adjacent business lines will rise during the 2024 crypto bull market
- Made on
- 2024-03-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-03-08
Publicly traded stocks with crypto-adjacent business lines rise materially (e.g., outperform the broad market) during the 2024 crypto bull market.
Resolved in favor on the flagship names (MSTR, COIN) which clearly outperformed the S&P 500 across the 2024 bull market and into the Mar-8-2025 window. Dispersion caveat for the later scoring stage: pure-play miners (MARA, RIOT) were mixed — some posted only modest or negative YTD returns at points in 2024 — so 'crypto-adjacent stocks' as a whole is not uniformly a blowout, though the sector's headline constituents did rise materially and outperform. No outcome value assigned per stage separation.
Sources
Dust On Crust Part Deux
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
During the 2024 crypto bull market, flagship crypto-adjacent equities materially outperformed the broad market. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate BTC holder, rose ~350%+ in calendar 2024; Coinbase (COIN) returned roughly +48% in 2024 and had a trailing-12-month return near +164% by late October 2024. By comparison the S&P 500 returned about +23% in 2024. This satisfies the 'outperform the broad market' criterion for the sector's bellwethers.
12-month performance context through mid-2024: COIN +280% and MSTR +270% over the prior year, well ahead of the index — confirming the crypto-adjacent equity complex led the market during the bull run.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.86- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Stocks with crypto-adjacent business lines will rise during…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources