Prediction record

Hitmarkets

Crypto and stocks will rise on net through the end of 2024 as fiat money supply expands

A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .

BlogPrimary sourcemarketscrypto

Scored record

Hitmarkets

which will underpin the general rise of crypto and stonks until the end of the year.

Crypto and stocks will rise on net through the end of 2024 as fiat money supply expands

Made on
2024-04-08
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
+2.86

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2024-12-31

Crypto (BTC) and US equities (S&P 500) are net higher at end-2024 than on 2024-04-08.

Both legs of the criterion satisfied: BTC and the S&P 500 each closed 2024 higher than their 2024-04-08 levels (BTC ~+28%, S&P ~+13%). Directly supports the prediction. No outcome value assigned per stage separation.

Sources

  • Heatwave

    Substack ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • Bitcoin was net higher at end-2024: ~$73,243 on 2024-04-08 vs ~$93,460 close on 2024-12-31 (about +28%).

    Evidence

  • S&P 500 was net higher at end-2024: 5,202.39 close on 2024-04-08 vs 5,881.63 close on 2024-12-31 (about +13%). The index returned ~23% for full-year 2024.

    Evidence

Corrections

  • tags: Stated subject is explicitly 'crypto and stonks' — an equity/index leg (markets) and a crypto leg (crypto). Add 'crypto' so the record feeds the per-tag crypto score.

Score contribution

+2.86
Confidence
85%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
+2.86

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

Crypto and stocks will rise on net through the end of 2024…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 5, 2026
Made on
2024-04-08

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