Prediction record
MissmarketsGlobal financial markets will suffer another significant sell-off between September and November 2024 as USD/JPY resumes its decline toward 100
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“I believe the markets will throw another tantrum between September and November as the dollar-yen pair resumes its death march toward 100”
Global financial markets will suffer another significant sell-off between September and November 2024 as USD/JPY resumes its decline toward 100
- Made on
- 2024-08-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.62
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-11-30
Global risk markets experience another significant sell-off (e.g., a ≥10% drawdown in major equity indices or crypto) between 2024-09-01 and 2024-11-30.
The predicted 'another significant sell-off ... as USD/JPY resumes its decline toward 100' did not materialize; risk markets rallied strongly Sep–Nov 2024. Equities clearly had no ≥10% drawdown. The one borderline is a brief early-September crypto dip near ~10% (BTC ~$59k→~$53k) — flag this for the quantify stage to measure precisely against the '≥10% drawdown in crypto' branch of the criterion, but it was a short pullback within an uptrend, not the sustained sell-off the claim described.
Sources
Spirited Away
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
Major US equity indices did NOT experience a ≥10% drawdown in Sep–Nov 2024. The S&P 500 rose over the window, hitting the 6,000 milestone (closing 6,001.35) on Nov 11 2024 after a post-election rally; intra-window pullbacks were shallow (~single digits).
Crypto did not sustain a significant sell-off either: BTC had only a brief early-September dip (~$59k to ~$53k, roughly a high-single-digit-to-~10% pullback) before rallying to ~$66k in September on the Fed cut, ~$70k in October, and surging past $75k after the Nov 5 election. USD/JPY did NOT resume a decline toward 100 — the yen weakened again into year-end.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.62- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.62
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Global financial markets will suffer another significant se…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources