Prediction record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve will expand its balance sheet within ~3 months of August 2024 to counter a strengthening yen
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“Powell and Yellen will provide "real food" in some form of Fed balance sheet expansion very shortly to counter the effects of a strengthening yen.”
The Federal Reserve will expand its balance sheet within ~3 months of August 2024 to counter a strengthening yen
- Made on
- 2024-08-27
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-11-27
Fed total assets (balance sheet) increase on a net basis within ~3 months of 2024-08-27
Criterion: Fed total assets increase on a net basis within ~3 months of 2024-08-27. Primary/official evidence shows the opposite — the balance sheet CONTRACTED via ongoing QT over the window; no net expansion occurred by the 2024-11-27 deadline. Outcome value deferred to scoring.
Sources
Sugar High
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
The Fed remained in active quantitative tightening throughout the Aug–Nov 2024 window, running off Treasuries at ~$25B/month (pace set May 1, 2024). It did NOT begin expanding the balance sheet; total assets continued their net decline. QT did not end until December 2025.
Fed weekly total assets (WALCL) trended down across this period — roughly ~$7.15T in late August 2024 to ~$6.98T by late November 2024 (a net DECREASE of ~$0.15–0.2T), consistent with continued runoff (≈$7.1T on Sep 25, 2024 falling toward ~$6.7T by Mar 2025).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Federal Reserve will expand its balance sheet within ~3…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources