The US stock market will be higher going into the November 2024 presidential election, propped up by Democratic monetary policy

A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on 2024-08-27.

BlogPrimary sourcemarketspolitics

Scored record

Hitmarkets

“the incumbent Democrats will use all monetary levers to ensure a rising stock market before the November election.”

The US stock market will be higher going into the November 2024 presidential election, propped up by Democratic monetary policy

Made on: 2024-08-27
Outcome: Hit
Importance: 3 / 5
Contribution: +2.86

Criterion

Resolution status: resolved
Resolved on: 2024-11-05

S&P 500 is higher on ~2024-11-05 than on 2024-08-27

Criterion: S&P 500 higher on ~2024-11-05 than on 2024-08-27. Confirmed higher (5,782.76 vs 5,625.80). The claim's causal attribution ('propped up by Democratic monetary policy') is not independently verifiable and is not part of the price criterion. Outcome value deferred to scoring.

Sources

Sugar High
Substack · 2024-08-27
Source

Outcome evidence

S&P 500 closed at 5,625.80 on 2024-08-27 (the made_on date).
Evidence
S&P 500 closed at 5,782.76 on Election Day 2024-11-05, up ~2.8% from the Aug 27 level — the index was higher going into the election.
Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

+2.86

Confidence: 85%
Outcome: Hit
Importance: 3 / 5
Contribution: +2.86

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

The US stock market will be higher going into the November…

Methodology version: v1.0.0
Last computed: July 5, 2026
Made on: 2024-08-27

How this profile was built

Scored by independent judges 2026-07-05
Predictions gathered and sourced 2026-07-05
Independently verified against sources 2026-07-05

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