Prediction record
25% outcomecryptoAssuming no Fed rate cut before the September 2024 meeting, Bitcoin will chop or slowly leak lower toward $50,000 through the September 2024 FOMC
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomecrypto“I expect T-bill yields to stay firmly below those of the RRP. As such, RRP balances should continue to rise, and Bitcoin, at best, will chop around these levels and, at worst, slowly leak lower towards $50,000.”
Assuming no Fed rate cut before the September 2024 meeting, Bitcoin will chop or slowly leak lower toward $50,000 through the September 2024 FOMC
- Made on
- 2024-09-03
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.56
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-09-18
Between 2024-09-03 and the Sept 2024 FOMC, Bitcoin trades sideways or lower, approaching ~$50,000 rather than rallying
Criterion: between 2024-09-03 and the Sept FOMC, BTC trades sideways/lower toward ~$50k rather than rallying. Two-sided: the prediction's precondition ('no Fed cut before the meeting') held, and BTC did dip toward the low-$54k area early on — but the dominant end-state was a rally into the FOMC (~$61.6k on 2024-09-18), contradicting 'approaching $50k rather than rallying.' Both the early leak and the late rally are noted. Outcome value deferred to scoring.
Sources
Boom Times... Delayed
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
Early in the window BTC did leak lower, dropping to a local low close of ~$53,949 on 2024-09-06 (approaching, but not reaching, ~$50k).
By the Sept FOMC, BTC had RALLIED rather than chopped/leaked: it rose to ~$60.6k by Sep 13 and closed ~$61,650 on 2024-09-18 (FOMC day), briefly hitting ~$61k after the 50bps cut — clearly above the ~$57k starting area and moving away from $50k.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Condition 'Fed does not cut before the Sept 2024 meeting' held — the 50bp cut occurred AT the Sep 18 FOMC, not before — so the antecedent is satisfied and Y is scoreable.
- tags: Bitcoin price forecast → 'crypto' is the primary controlled-vocab tag; per the crypto-vs-markets rule a pure crypto price bet also carries 'markets' secondary so the market-timing track stays continuous.
Score contribution
+0.56- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.56
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Assuming no Fed rate cut before the September 2024 meeting,…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-09-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources