Prediction record
75% outcomecryptoCrypto markets will suffer a sharp sell-off around Trump's January 20, 2025 inauguration
A scored record for Arthur Hayes, made on .
Scored record
75% outcomecrypto“I believe the crypto markets will experience a harrowing dump around Trump's January 20th 2025 inauguration day.”
Crypto markets will suffer a sharp sell-off around Trump's January 20, 2025 inauguration
- Made on
- 2024-12-17
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.94
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-01-27
Crypto (Bitcoin / total market cap) declines meaningfully in the window around the Jan 20, 2025 inauguration
Criterion: crypto declines meaningfully in the window around the Jan 20, 2025 inauguration. A clear inauguration-day reversal (~$109k → ~$102k, ~6%) plus a further late-January dip toward ~$98–100k occurred — directionally consistent with a sell-off — but it was a pullback from an all-time high rather than a sharp/sustained crash, with BTC holding near $100k through the 2025-01-31 deadline. Magnitude ('sharp' vs. moderate pullback) is the judgment left to scoring. Outcome value deferred to scoring.
Sources
Trump Truth
Substack ·
Outcome evidence
On inauguration day 2025-01-20, BTC hit a new all-time high ~$109,000–$109,350 intraday then reversed sharply in a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' move, falling ~6% to ~$102,000–$103,558 the same session.
Crypto continued to slide in the following days, with BTC dipping to roughly ~$98k–$100.6k by late January / Feb 1, 2025 (a further leg down around Jan 27), though it did not collapse and remained near the $100k level.
Corrections
- tags: Crypto-market price claim → `crypto` primary, `markets` secondary.
Score contribution
+2.94- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.94
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Crypto markets will suffer a sharp sell-off around Trump's…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources