Prediction record
HitmarketsEthereum will make a large upward price move within the next few months, provided Bitcoin holds its 20-week moving average as support.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“We're going to see aetherium really take off.”
Ethereum will make a large upward price move within the next few months, provided Bitcoin holds its 20-week moving average as support.
- Made on
- 2019-10-30
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2020-02-14
Conditional on Bitcoin holding its 20-week MA as support: Ethereum posts a large upward move (≥50% rise from its 2019-10-30 level) within a few months (by 2020-04-30).
Conditional prediction. The ≥50% ETH move (consequent) occurred in Feb 2020 while BTC was still holding its 20-week MA (antecedent held). The MA break came later in March, after the consequent was already satisfied. Conditional-logic adjudication and outcome value left to the scoring stage; both sides noted.
Sources
ETH/BTC is severely undervalued: An analysis of past trends, correlations, and fractals
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
From its 2019-10-30 level (~$183), ETH rose to ~$285-288 by mid-Feb 2020 — a ~55% gain, exceeding the +50% threshold — within the 'few months' window (well before 2020-04-30).
Condition context: through the Nov-2019 to Feb-2020 window Bitcoin rose from ~$9,000 to ~$10,500, holding above its ~$8,500-9,000 20-week MA as support during ETH's rise. That support was only decisively broken on Black Thursday (Mar 12-13, 2020, BTC ~$9,100 to ~$3,800) — AFTER the qualifying ETH move had already occurred.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Resolution evidence establishes BTC held its 20-week MA as support through the Feb 2020 ETH move (the MA broke only on Mar 12-13, after the consequent occurred); the antecedent objectively held, so condition_met should be recorded as true rather than null.
- tags: Unambiguously a cryptocurrency (Ethereum/Bitcoin) prediction; 'crypto' is a controlled-dictionary tag matching the 2026 Cowen records' convention (within 1-3 tag limit).
Score contribution
+2.86- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Ethereum will make a large upward price move within the nex…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-10-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources