Prediction record
MisscryptoThe cryptocurrency market cycle will peak in 2022 or 2023, not in 2021.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“I think the likelihood that we peak in 2022 or 2023 far out far exceeds out of peaking in 2021”
The cryptocurrency market cycle will peak in 2022 or 2023, not in 2021.
- Made on
- 2019-12-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
The next crypto bull-market cycle top (peak of total market cap / BTC) occurs during calendar year 2022 or 2023.
Criterion requires the cycle top (total market cap / BTC) to occur during 2022 or 2023. Both the total-market-cap ATH (~$3T, Nov 8–9 2021) and the BTC ATH (~$69k, Nov 10 2021) fell in 2021, and neither was exceeded during 2022 or 2023 (next BTC ATH was March 2024). Resolvable date set to 2023-12-31, when the 2022–2023 window closed with no higher peak. The prediction that the peak would come in 2022/2023 rather than 2021 is contradicted by the evidence (peak was 2021).
Sources
Arguments for a longer crypto market cycle
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Total cryptocurrency market cap set its all-time high above $3 trillion during Nov 8–9, 2021 (per CoinGecko pricing) — the cycle top of total market cap occurred in calendar 2021, not 2022 or 2023.
Bitcoin's cycle-top price of ~$69,000 ($69,225 on Coinbase; $68,982 on other venues) was hit Nov 10, 2021. This record stood unbroken until March 2024, so no higher BTC peak occurred in 2022 or 2023.
The 2021 peak of ~$69,000 was only surpassed on March 5, 2024, confirming the prior-cycle top of both BTC and total market cap fell in 2021 and that 2022–2023 contained no new cycle top.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The cryptocurrency market cycle will peak in 2022 or 2023,…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-12-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources