Prediction record
75% outcomecryptoBitcoin will reach $100,000-$150,000 (possibly up to $200,000), peaking near the end of 2021
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
75% outcomecrypto“If we were to see a push up to say between 100 and 200,000, probably between 100 and 150,000, um, even on a four-year cycle it would probably be the, you know, nearing the end of 2021.”
Bitcoin will reach $100,000-$150,000 (possibly up to $200,000), peaking near the end of 2021
- Made on
- 2020-02-09
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.98
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-12-31
BTC reaches at least $100,000 at some point on or before 2021-12-31
Criterion (BTC ≥ $100,000 on or before 2021-12-31) NOT met. 2021 peak (~$68.8k) fell ~31% short of the $100k floor of the predicted range. Deterministically resolvable at deadline; resolved_on set to the deadline. Prediction of a peak 'near the end of 2021' is directionally partly correct on timing (peak was Nov 2021) but the price magnitude criterion was not satisfied — magnitude judgment left to the scoring stage.
Sources
Bitcoin: Logarithmic regression price analysis
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin's 2021 all-time high was ~$68,789 on Nov 10, 2021 (highest daily close ~$67,567 on Nov 8). BTC never traded at or above $100,000 at any point in 2021; it ended 2021 near $46,000. The $100k level was not reached until well after the deadline.
Contemporaneous 2021 price history confirming the Nov 2021 peak just under $69k stood as the ATH for years (surpassed only March 2024).
Corrections
- tags: Crypto price bet: dictionary mandates 'crypto' primary + 'markets' secondary.
Score contribution
+2.98- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.98
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will reach $100,000-$150,000 (possibly up to $200,0…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-02-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources