Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin will not reach $100,000 before Q4 2022; Q4 2022 is the earliest possible timing.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“the the fourth quarter of 2022 would be the earliest we would see a new paradigm shift of say a hundred thousand dollars per Bitcoin”
Bitcoin will not reach $100,000 before Q4 2022; Q4 2022 is the earliest possible timing.
- Made on
- 2020-04-30
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-10-01
Bitcoin does not trade at or above $100,000 at any point before 2022-10-01.
Criterion is that BTC does NOT trade >= $100,000 before 2022-10-01. Confirmed satisfied: pre-deadline ATH was ~$69k (Nov 2021), roughly 30% below the $100k threshold. Bitcoin's first-ever move above $100,000 came in December 2024, well after the deadline. No conflicting credible evidence; resolution is unambiguous. resolved_on set to the deadline (2022-10-01), the date the no-touch window closed. Outcome value (o) and scoring deliberately not assigned — later stage.
Sources
Bitcoin price surges as the halving looms
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin's all-time high prior to the 2022-10-01 deadline was $68,982.20, set on November 10, 2021. This record stood untouched until March 2024, meaning BTC never traded at or above $100,000 at any point before 2022-10-01 — the written criterion holds.
Bloomberg confirms Bitcoin did not exceed its November 2021 record (~$69,000) again until March 5, 2024, so no price at or above $100,000 occurred in the relevant window (2020-04-30 through 2022-10-01).
Corrections
- tags: Scoreable BTC price/timing call → 'crypto' primary + 'markets' secondary; keeps the crypto sub-score track consistent with the other BTC scoreable records.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will not reach $100,000 before Q4 2022; Q4 2022 is…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-04-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources