Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin's fourth market-cycle peak will occur in 2023 (±6-8 months)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“the next peak will likely not occur until 2023 plus or minus a 6 or 8 months”
Bitcoin's fourth market-cycle peak will occur in 2023 (±6-8 months)
- Made on
- 2020-05-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
Bitcoin's fourth market-cycle price peak occurs during calendar 2023 (within ±6-8 months, i.e., mid-2022 to early 2024).
Criterion = Bitcoin's fourth market-cycle price peak occurs in calendar 2023, tolerance window mid-2022 to early 2024. No cycle peak occurred anywhere in that window: BTC's 2021 top predates it, 2023 was a recovery year (no top), and even the early-2024 high ($73,750, Mar 2024) was not the cycle peak — the cycle continued upward to its actual top of ~$126K in Oct 2025, far outside the window. Falsifiable and falsified by the 2023-12-31 deadline; outcome value left for scoring stage.
Sources
Bitcoin: Daily Percentage Move Frequency Visualization
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin did not make a market-cycle peak in 2023. It recovered ~157% over the year to about $42,000 but set no cycle top; the prior cycle peak (~$69K) was in Nov 2021, and BTC went on to new highs of $73,750 in March 2024, $100K+ in Dec 2024, and an all-time high of ~$126,200 on October 6, 2025.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's fourth market-cycle peak will occur in 2023 (±6-8…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-05-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources