Prediction record
25% outcomecryptoTotal cryptocurrency market capitalization reaches roughly $10 trillion by 2023 (300-400% above trend)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomecrypto“if you were to extend this line out to say 2023 it's going to be about three or four hundred percent overvalued and at the time the fair valuation might be you know two or three trillion so then if you imagine a three or four hundred percent over valuation it gets us to that ten trillion dollar market count”
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization reaches roughly $10 trillion by 2023 (300-400% above trend)
- Made on
- 2020-05-25
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
Total crypto market capitalization reaches ~$10 trillion at some point by 2023-12-31.
Criterion required total crypto market cap to reach ~$10 trillion at some point by 2023-12-31. The observed peak within the window was roughly a quarter of that (~$2.7–3T, Q4 2021). Multiple independent aggregators (CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap-derived reporting) agree the $10T threshold was never approached in the window.
Sources
The undervaluation of Ethereum and *some* altcoins
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Total crypto market cap set its cycle all-time high of ~$2.7–3 trillion in October/November 2021, well short of $10 trillion; the $10T level was never reached at any point on or before 2023-12-31.
2022–2023 saw no new market-cap records (crypto winter after FTX collapse); total market cap ended 2023 near ~$1.6T. The all-time high for total crypto market cap was not reached until October 2025 at ~$4.31T — still far below $10T.
Corrections
- tags: Aggregate crypto market-cap call → 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary; 'crypto' missing.
Score contribution
+1.12- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization reaches roughly…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-05-25
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources