Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin's bull-market cycle peak will not occur before late 2022, extending beyond the traditional four-year cycle — the peak lands in the late-2022 to 2023 window.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“I think late 2022 would be kind of like the earliest it should happen where you could say that lengthening cycle theory is true”
Bitcoin's bull-market cycle peak will not occur before late 2022, extending beyond the traditional four-year cycle — the peak lands in the late-2022 to 2023 window.
- Made on
- 2020-06-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-11-10
Bitcoin's cycle all-time-high (bull-market top) occurs no earlier than late 2022 and within calendar 2022-2023; a top established before Q4 2022 falsifies it.
Criterion required the cycle top to occur no earlier than late 2022 and within 2022-2023; the actual cycle top was 2021-11-10, which the written criterion states falsifies the claim. Resolvable and clear.
Sources
Bitcoin ROI from the halving: 4 year cycle vs. lengthening cycle projection
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin's 2020-2021 bull-market cycle top was set on 2021-11-10 at ~$68,789-$69,000 (Coinbase print ~$69,225). This peak occurred in Q4 2021, roughly a year BEFORE the late-2022 window the claim specified; no higher top was made in 2022 or 2023 (2022 high ~$48k in March 2022; 2023 high $44,129 on 2023-12-05). The cycle top therefore landed before Q4 2022.
Bitcoin's prior nominal record of $69,225 was hit on November 10, 2021; it did not exceed that level again until 2024, confirming the cycle top predated the 2022-2023 window.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin cycle-price call: 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's bull-market cycle peak will not occur before late…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-06-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources