Prediction record
50% outcomemarketsOver the next one to two months (by ~late August 2020), Bitcoin's 20-week moving average will turn upward while its 50-week moving average continues to fall
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
50% outcomemarkets“the 20 week moving average will likely start to increase the 50 week moving average is going to continue to decrease”
Over the next one to two months (by ~late August 2020), Bitcoin's 20-week moving average will turn upward while its 50-week moving average continues to fall
- Made on
- 2020-06-28
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.64
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2020-08-28
By ~2020-08-28, Bitcoin's 20-week MA is rising while its 50-week MA is still declining.
Criterion: by ~2020-08-28 the 20W MA is rising WHILE the 50W MA is still declining. Facts (fully determined): the 20W MA did turn up (~week of Jul 19), so the first leg holds. But the 50W MA had already turned up ~week of Aug 2, so at the ~Aug 28 evaluation point it was RISING, not declining - the second leg fails. The specific '20W up AND 50W still falling' configuration existed only briefly (~week of Jul 19 to Jul 26) before the 50W also turned up in early August. Directionally the 20W did lead the 50W by ~2 weeks (the prediction's spirit), but the stated 'through late August' persistence of the 50W decline did not hold. Evidence is unambiguous; the partial-vs-miss mapping is a scoring judgement for the later stage.
Sources
Bitcoin: Will the sideways movement end?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Computed 20W and 50W SMA slopes (week-over-week) from Coinbase BTC-USD daily closes: the 20W SMA turned up in the week ending 2020-07-19 (rose from ~$8,173 to ~$8,207) and kept rising. The 50W SMA bottomed at ~$8,567 in the week ending 2020-07-26 and turned UP from the week ending 2020-08-02 onward (~$8,582 -> ~$8,709 by 2020-08-30). By the ~2020-08-28 horizon, BOTH the 20W and 50W MAs were rising.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.64- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.64
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Over the next one to two months (by ~late August 2020), Bit…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-06-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources