Prediction record

Misscrypto

The Bitcoin bull-market cycle peak (blow-off top) occurs in 2023

A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .

VideoPrimary sourcecryptomarkets

Scored record

Misscrypto

the next cycle isn't peaking until say 2023 um maybe even 2024 i tend to think 2023 is the most likely timeframe

The Bitcoin bull-market cycle peak (blow-off top) occurs in 2023

Made on
2020-07-09
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
-0.84

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2023-12-31

The all-time-high / cycle peak of the Bitcoin cycle beginning ~2020 occurs during calendar year 2023

Fully evaluable: the 2023 window has closed. The ~2020-cycle blow-off top was 2021-11-10 (~$69k), and 2023's high (~$44.7k) never approached ATH, so the predicted 2023 cycle peak did not occur. No outcome value assigned.

Sources

  • Bitcoin: The master of volatility

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • The all-time-high / cycle peak of the Bitcoin cycle that began ~2020 occurred on 2020-11-10 at ~$68,789–$69,000, followed by a full bear market to ~$16k in Nov 2022. The peak was in 2021, not 2023.

    Evidence

  • Bitcoin's highest price during calendar-year 2023 was ~$44,705 (December 2023), far below the ~$69k ATH; BTC did not make a new cycle peak/blow-off top in 2023. The next new ATH came only in March 2024.

    Evidence

Corrections

  • tags: Crypto-vs-markets rule: a Bitcoin price/cycle bet takes 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary.

Score contribution

-0.84
Confidence
80%
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
-0.84

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

The Bitcoin bull-market cycle peak (blow-off top) occurs in…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 18, 2026
Made on
2020-07-09

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