Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin's current market cycle will peak in approximately 2023 (plus or minus 6-8 months)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“i think 20 23 plus or minus six to eight months is where that that that goldilocks region is going to be for the peak of the next level i i still think it's approximately three years away”
Bitcoin's current market cycle will peak in approximately 2023 (plus or minus 6-8 months)
- Made on
- 2020-09-21
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.62
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-11-10
Bitcoin's cycle top (the highest price before a subsequent drawdown greater than ~50%) occurs within the window mid-2022 to mid-2024
Criterion: cycle top (highest price before a >~50% drawdown) must fall within mid-2022 to mid-2024. The actual cycle top (Nov 10, 2021) preceded that window by roughly 6-7 months, so it falls outside even the 'approximately 2023 ±6-8 months' framing. The >50% drawdown was confirmed by mid-2022. Fully resolvable; not scored here.
Sources
Bitcoin tests the 20 week MA again!
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin's cycle top was $69,000 on Nov 10, 2021 — before the criterion's 'mid-2022 to mid-2024' window.
The Nov 2021 peak was followed by a ~78% drawdown to ~$15,500 by Nov 2022, far exceeding the criterion's '~50% subsequent drawdown' test that defines the top — confirming Nov 10, 2021 as the cycle top.
Corrections
- tags: Crypto price/cycle call → 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary per tag dictionary.
Score contribution
+0.62- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.62
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's current market cycle will peak in approximately 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-09-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources