Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin's cycle price peak does not occur during calendar 2021 (stated as <10% chance of peaking in 2021, i.e. ~90% confidence in no peak).
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“the chance that we peak in 2021 is probably less than 10 percent”
Bitcoin's cycle price peak does not occur during calendar 2021 (stated as <10% chance of peaking in 2021, i.e. ~90% confidence in no peak).
- Made on
- 2020-09-03
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-11-10
Bitcoin's all-time cycle price high is NOT set during the 2021 calendar year.
Criterion (BTC's all-time cycle price high is NOT set during 2021) NOT met: the cycle high WAS set Nov 10, 2021. The prediction (assigning <10% chance to a 2021 peak) is resolvable against the written criterion. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
A Bitcoin Correction
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin set a record high of ~$68,982 on Nov 10, 2021. This November 2021 peak stood as Bitcoin's all-time high in USD terms for more than two years, until it was surpassed in March 2024 — establishing that a cycle price peak (indeed the cycle's all-time high) DID occur during calendar 2021.
Forbes reported the same Nov 10, 2021 all-time high near $69,000; the subsequent cycle low (~$16k) came in late 2022 and the next higher high only in 2024 — so 2021 unambiguously contained the cycle's price peak.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.86- Confidence
- 90%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's cycle price peak does not occur during calendar 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-09-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources