Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin will test its 20-week moving average at least once during the 2020–2021 market cycle
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“we will see tests of the 20-week moving average namely because if you look back during the last market cycle even during the bull run we always were testing the 20 week”
Bitcoin will test its 20-week moving average at least once during the 2020–2021 market cycle
- Made on
- 2020-10-28
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-06-22
At some point before the cycle's bull-market peak, Bitcoin's weekly price touches or falls below its 20-week moving average
Criterion (weekly price touches/falls below 20-week MA at least once before the cycle bull peak) is met. The 2020-2021 cycle peaked 2021-11-10 (~$69k); the sub-20WMA test in May-June 2021 preceded it. The exact 20WMA value is a derived indicator, not a single reported figure, but the ~50% drawdown from ~$64k to ~$29k in weeks makes a sub-20WMA weekly close/touch technically certain.
Sources
Bitcoin: Movin' on up!
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
During the May-July 2021 correction (well before the cycle's Nov-2021 peak), BTC crashed from ~$64k (mid-April 2021) to below $30,000 on 2021-06-22. With the trailing 20-week SMA sitting far above $30k at that time (the prior 20 weeks spanned ~$30k-$64k, averaging ~$45-50k), the weekly price fell decisively below its 20-week moving average, satisfying the 'touches or falls below' criterion.
Corrections
- horizon deadline: 'this market cycle' from Oct-2020 = the 2020-2021 cycle, which peaked 2021-11-10 per the record's own resolution notes; 2024-06-30 is the following cycle.
Score contribution
+1.91- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will test its 20-week moving average at least once…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources