Prediction record
HitmarketsIf this cycle mirrors the last one, Bitcoin will not break above its key resistance until the end of 2020, then break above it going into 2021
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“Then we're talking about not breaking out above it until the end of the year, so going into 2021 we would then break above it.”
If this cycle mirrors the last one, Bitcoin will not break above its key resistance until the end of 2020, then break above it going into 2021
- Made on
- 2020-10-20
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2020-12-16
Given the cycle mirrors the prior one: BTC does not break above its key resistance until ~end of 2020, breaking above it in early 2021.
The record's 'key resistance' is the 2017-cycle all-time high (~$19,800/$20k). Reality tracked the prediction's timing closely: BTC held below that resistance through most of 2020, first pierced the 2017 ATH on Nov 30, 2020, broke $20k on Dec 16, 2020 (~end of 2020), then surged into early 2021 (~$40k by early Jan). All within the 2021-03-31 deadline. No conflicting credible evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin moves back to $12k! What is next?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC first surpassed its 2017 all-time high (~$19,666) on Nov 30, 2020, reaching ~$19,864 — the first break of the key prior-cycle resistance, occurring at the very end of 2020.
BTC decisively broke above $20,000 into new all-time-high territory on Dec 16, 2020, confirming the breakout above the 2017 resistance zone.
After the end-of-2020 break, BTC continued sharply higher 'going into 2021' — ~$29k by Dec 31, 2020 and ~$40k by early Jan 2021 — matching the predicted timing (break at ~end of 2020, continuation into early 2021).
Corrections
- conditional condition met: The condition (cycle mirrors the prior one) was borne out — BTC held below its 2017-cycle resistance through 2020 then broke it at end-2020 into 2021 exactly as specified. With Y objectively occurred and status 'resolved', condition_met must be true for the conditional to score.
Score contribution
+2.86- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If this cycle mirrors the last one, Bitcoin will not break…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources