Prediction record
MissmarketsMonero (XMR) trends upward against Bitcoin over the coming weeks-to-months, as long as Bitcoin holds above its 20-week moving average.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“Over the next several weeks several months that the monero ratio against bitcoin is more likely to trend up as long as bitcoin stays above the 20-week moving average.”
Monero (XMR) trends upward against Bitcoin over the coming weeks-to-months, as long as Bitcoin holds above its 20-week moving average.
- Made on
- 2020-10-09
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-01-09
The XMR/BTC ratio is net higher over the several weeks-to-months following the statement (through ~early 2021), given Bitcoin holds above its 20-week MA.
Criterion asks whether XMR/BTC was net higher through ~early 2021 given BTC held above its 20-week MA. The condition held, but XMR net UNDERPERFORMED BTC sharply (ratio down ~60%+) — Monero rose in USD but fell hard against Bitcoin, opposite to the prediction. XMR/USD figures from CoinLore monthly data; BTC path from month-end price data; ratio is derived.
Sources
Monero breakout against Bitcoin to continue?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Monero (XMR) rose modestly over the window: ~$108 open in Oct 2020, ~$126 close Oct 2020, ~$156 at end of Dec 2020, ~$138-156 in Jan 2021 (Jan open $156.43). Around the statement date (~Oct 9, 2020) XMR was ~$110; around the deadline (~Jan 9, 2021) XMR was ~$140-155 — roughly a 1.3x gain in USD.
Over the same window Bitcoin rose ~4x, from ~$11,000 (early Oct 2020) to above $40,000 (Jan 7-8, 2021). The implied XMR/BTC ratio therefore fell from ~0.0100 to ~0.0036 — a decline of roughly 60-65%. The stated condition (BTC holding above its 20-week MA) held throughout, so the conditional applies.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.31- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Monero (XMR) trends upward against Bitcoin over the coming…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources