Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin's next cycle top (peak-to-peak) will occur in 2023 (2022 at the earliest, 2024 at the latest).
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“I would argue into 2022 at the earliest, maybe as late as 2024, i tend to think 2023.”
Bitcoin's next cycle top (peak-to-peak) will occur in 2023 (2022 at the earliest, 2024 at the latest).
- Made on
- 2020-11-09
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-10-06
BTC's next cycle peak (peak-to-peak measurement) prints in calendar years 2022-2024, central estimate 2023.
Note that the top Cowen was forecasting from Nov-2020 was the then-ongoing cycle's peak, realized 2021-11-10 — BEFORE his 2022 floor (a miss on the early side). The subsequent cycle top printed 2025-10-06, past the 2024 ceiling. No cycle peak fell in 2022-2024 under either reading → miss.
Sources
Bitcoin sets a new 20 week MA ATH!
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The cycle top following the Nov-2021 peak did NOT print in 2022-2024. BTC set an interim high of ~$73,000 in March 2024, then continued climbing through 2024-2025 to a new cycle all-time high of ~$126,296 on October 6, 2025 — outside the 2022-2024 criterion window (and past the 2024-12-31 deadline).
The Oct-6-2025 print is confirmed as the cycle peak by the subsequent ~46.7% drawdown to ~$67,550 by mid-February 2026 — a bear-market-magnitude decline establishing 2025-10-06 as the peak-to-peak top, not any 2022-2024 date.
Corrections
- tags: BTC cycle-top is a crypto price/level call: 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary.
- resolution notes: Clarify the notes so the miss verdict is unambiguous regardless of which top is taken as the referent.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's next cycle top (peak-to-peak) will occur in 2023…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-11-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources