Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin falls back to retest its 20-week moving average within the next several weeks.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“It might take us another several weeks to test it, but we will test it, I think, at some point, um, in the not so distant future.”
Bitcoin falls back to retest its 20-week moving average within the next several weeks.
- Made on
- 2020-12-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-03-02
Bitcoin's price declines to touch its 20-week simple moving average on a daily basis within roughly three months of 2020-12-02.
No retest occurred. Across the full ~3-month window BTC's minimum (~$29-30k in Jan 2021) stayed well above its rising 20-week SMA (~$13k-$20k). The predicted fall back to touch the 20-week MA did not happen. Deadline 2021-03-02 used as resolved_on since the window closed with no touch.
Sources
Bitcoin: Another fair warning to newcomers
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Between 2020-12-02 and 2021-03-02 BTC's lowest levels were ~$29,000-$30,000 (late-January 2021 dip; lowest 2021 daily close near $29,374 on Jan 1, and BTC fell back to ~$30k around Jan 21-27). The subsequent late-Feb 2021 correction only fell to ~$45k. BTC never declined into the teens/low-20ks where its rising 20-week SMA sat.
BTC's 20-week SMA was ~$12,900 in early December 2020 and rose steadily through Q1 2021 (into the high-teens by late January and ~$20k+ by end-February 2021) as low mid-2020 weekly closes rolled off. It remained many thousands of dollars below BTC's price ($29k+ minimum) throughout the window, so price never touched the 20-week SMA.
Corrections
- tags: BTC 20-week-MA retest call → 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary.
Score contribution
+0.31- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin falls back to retest its 20-week moving average wit…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-12-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources