Prediction record
MisscryptoThe crypto bull market will not be a one-and-done 2021 event; it will extend beyond 2021
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“Is it possible that the bull market is just 2021, one and done? Is possible. Do I think it's likely? No, I don't.”
The crypto bull market will not be a one-and-done 2021 event; it will extend beyond 2021
- Made on
- 2020-12-28
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-31
The crypto bull market continues past 2021-12-31: BTC and majors make higher cycle highs and remain in an uptrend into 2022 rather than the cycle topping and reversing within 2021.
Criterion asked whether the cycle extended past 2021 with higher cycle highs into 2022. The record's window runs to deadline 2022-12-31; the cycle top occurred Nov 10, 2021 and BTC fell throughout 2022 with no new high, so the criterion's condition (uptrend/higher highs into 2022) is fully resolvable against price history. No outcome value assigned here per instructions.
Sources
Bitcoin and Ethereum: The perfect portfolio balance
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC set its cycle top at ~$68,990 on Nov 10, 2021 — i.e. the cycle peaked WITHIN 2021, not on higher cycle highs into 2022.
Through 2022 BTC declined the entire year from the late-2021 high, bottoming at ~$15,479 in late 2022 (a ~78% drawdown); no higher cycle high was made in 2022 — the market reversed rather than extending in an uptrend.
The Nov 10, 2021 peak remained BTC's all-time high until March 2024, confirming no higher high was made across 2022.
Corrections
- tags: BTC/crypto-cycle specific; 'crypto' is the more central controlled-vocabulary tag.
Score contribution
-1.12- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The crypto bull market will not be a one-and-done 2021 even…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-12-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources