Prediction record

Hitmarkets

Chainlink (LINK) does not break out against Bitcoin in the short term while Bitcoin keeps rallying week after week.

A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .

VideoPrimary sourcemarkets

Scored record

Hitmarkets

However, if bitcoin just simply continues the bubble and continues pushing higher week after week, then again I would not expect link to break out against bitcoin in the short term, so we'll see what happens.

Chainlink (LINK) does not break out against Bitcoin in the short term while Bitcoin keeps rallying week after week.

Made on
2020-12-04
Outcome
Hit
Importance
2 / 5
Contribution
+1.84

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2021-03-04

Given Bitcoin keeps rallying weekly, the LINK/BTC pair does not make a sustained higher breakout within roughly three months of 2020-12-04.

The prediction's condition (BTC rallying weekly) held, and LINK/BTC made no sustained higher breakout within the window — it slightly underperformed BTC (ratio ~0.00070 -> ~0.00066). LINK/BTC ratios here are derived from documented USD closes (LINK Feb-2021 USD ATH ~$36.9 widely reported; exact figure source-dependent), but the direction — no breakout — is unambiguous. No outcome value assigned.

Sources

  • Chainlink will rise again!

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • Condition held: BTC rallied strongly and near-continuously through the window, from ~$19,150 on Dec 6, 2020 to a peak close of $57,539.94 on Feb 21, 2021. LINK/BTC did NOT break out over that span: early-Dec 2020 LINK (~$13-14) / BTC (~$19,150) ≈ 0.00070 BTC; at LINK's Feb-20-2021 USD peak (~$36.9) / BTC (~$56,000) ≈ 0.00066 BTC — LINK actually lost ground vs BTC while BTC rallied.

    Evidence

  • LINK/BTC did not make a sustained higher breakout until later: aggregator data marks the LINK/BTC high near 0.00082 BTC on May 10, 2021 (outside the window), and LINK/BTC's prior 2020 high (~0.0017 BTC, Aug 2020 when LINK ~$19.85 vs BTC ~$11,900) was far above anything reached in the Dec 2020-Mar 2021 window. Within roughly three months of 2020-12-04, LINK/BTC stayed range-bound/declining, not breaking out.

    Evidence

Corrections

  • conditional condition met: Resolution treats the condition (BTC pushing higher week after week) as met and largely held through the window; set condition_met true to remove the null/resolved bookkeeping inconsistency. Outcome unaffected.

Score contribution

+1.84
Confidence
80%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
2 / 5
Contribution
+1.84

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

Chainlink (LINK) does not break out against Bitcoin in the…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 18, 2026
Made on
2020-12-04

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