Prediction record
MissmarketsIf Bitcoin breaks above $42,000 and reaches $50,000, the DOT/BTC ratio declines (Polkadot bleeds against Bitcoin).
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“if bitcoin were to go on another rampage and break past 42k and make its way to 50k if that were to happen we would expect dot to bleed back down against bitcoin”
If Bitcoin breaks above $42,000 and reaches $50,000, the DOT/BTC ratio declines (Polkadot bleeds against Bitcoin).
- Made on
- 2021-01-14
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-04-14
Following BTC breaking $42k and reaching $50k, the DOT/BTC ratio is net lower over the subsequent near-term period.
Conditional claim; antecedent (BTC through $42k and reaching $50k) was satisfied by 2021-02-16, so the consequent is testable. Evidence points net AGAINST the criterion: over the Feb–Apr 2021 window the DOT/BTC ratio rose (DOT strongly outperformed BTC into the mid-April top), not declined. Direction is unambiguous even under source variance; exact daily DOT/BTC ratio endpoints were estimated from DOT/USD and BTC/USD levels (single official DOT/BTC-pair daily print for mid-April not captured), so treat the precise ratio figures as approximate while the sign is robust. No conflicting credible evidence found. Not assigning outcome value o — Stage-2 scoring.
Sources
Polkadot price breakout
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The prediction's antecedent triggered: BTC broke above $42k in early Jan 2021 and reached $50,487 (first-ever $50k) on 2021-02-16. Over the subsequent near-term window to the deadline, BTC rose further to an all-time high of ~$64,863 on 2021-04-14 (Coinbase-IPO day), i.e. roughly +1.6x from the ~$39k level at the Jan 14 prediction date.
BTC all-time high ~$64,863 on 2021-04-14 (deadline day), confirming the BTC denominator over the window.
DOT (Polkadot) OUTPERFORMED BTC over the same window rather than bleeding: DOT opened Jan 2021 near $8.3 and rose to roughly $40+ by mid-April, on its way to ~$48 in May 2021 (a >10x/~5x move in the period). Against BTC's ~1.6x, the DOT/BTC ratio rose materially (roughly ~0.00024 BTC on ~Jan 14 to ~0.00065 BTC by ~Apr 14) — the opposite direction to the predicted 'DOT bleeds against BTC' criterion.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Antecedent (BTC through $42k and reaching $50k) satisfied 2021-02-16, making the consequent testable; condition_met should be true.
- tags: DOT/BTC ratio claim is crypto-specific; adding in-dictionary 'crypto' improves per-tag scoring.
Score contribution
-0.56- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If Bitcoin breaks above $42,000 and reaches $50,000, the DO…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-01-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources