Prediction record
HitcryptoMeasured from each asset's prior-cycle peak (ETH ~$1,400), Ethereum will post a higher ROI than Bitcoin at the final peak of the 2020-2021 market cycle.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“i think if you measure it from the peak of the last cycle of 1400 i think ethereum will ultimately put in a higher roi than bitcoin”
Measured from each asset's prior-cycle peak (ETH ~$1,400), Ethereum will post a higher ROI than Bitcoin at the final peak of the 2020-2021 market cycle.
- Made on
- 2021-02-02
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-11-10
At the cycle top, (ETH cycle-peak / 1400) > (BTC cycle-peak / BTC prior-cycle-peak ~20000).
Cycle top well within deadline (2021-12-31). ETH ROI (~3.48x from $1,400) edged BTC ROI (~3.44x from $20,000), so the criterion is met — but by a thin ~1.3% margin. Sensitive to inputs: exact peak prints vary by exchange (BTC intraday $69,045 -> 3.452x still < ETH; ETH intraday ~$4,891 -> 3.494x) and to the assumed prior-cycle bases (BTC's 2017 peak is variously ~$19,783 on Coinbase vs ~$20,000; ETH's Jan-2018 peak ~$1,400-1,432). Under any commonly-cited combination ETH's ROI comes out slightly ahead, but the outcome is close enough that a stricter base-price convention could narrow or flip it. No outcome value assigned per stage separation.
Sources
Ethereum breaks $1500! How high can it go?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Both BTC and ETH set their 2020-2021 cycle peaks on Nov 10, 2021. Bitcoin peaked at $68,789.63 (CoinGecko close; intraday ~$69,000-69,045).
Ethereum's 2021 cycle peak was $4,878.26 (Nov 10, 2021), a record that stood until Aug 2025 — confirming this was the final cycle top.
Applying the record's criterion with fixed denominators (ETH prior peak $1,400, BTC prior peak $20,000): ETH ROI = 4878.26/1400 = 3.484x; BTC ROI = 68789.63/20000 = 3.439x. ETH's cycle ROI exceeded BTC's, satisfying the written criterion.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Measured from each asset's prior-cycle peak (ETH ~$1,400),…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-02-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources